Poll: Lujan Grisham with narrow lead at start of general election

A new survey commissioned by NM Policy Report shows incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham holding a narrow lead over Republican candidate Mark Ronchetti at the start of the general election campaign.

Public Policy Polling shows Lujan Grisham leading Ronchetti 45% to 42%, with libertarian Karen Bedonie receiving 9% and 5% saying they are unsure.

Lujan Grisham’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.

Lujan Grisham won the 2018 gubernatorial campaign with 57.2% to 42.8% against Steve Pearce, the Republican nominee and now chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party.

Ronchetti lost the 2020 US Senate election to Democrat Ben Ray Luján by 51.7% to 45.6%, with Libertarian Bob Walsh taking 2.6%.

Bedonie lost in the 2020 Republican 3rd congressional district primary.

Ronchetti, a former meteorologist, easily won a five-way Republican primary earlier this month, while Lujan Grisham was unopposed. Bedonie had a registered opponent.

Lujan Grisham holds a large lead among those who voted for Biden in 2020, 86% to 6%, with 4% saying they would vote for Bedonie. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among Trump voters 88% to 8% for Bedonie and 1% for Lujan Grisham.

Lujan Grisham’s lead also comes largely thanks to Hispanic or Latino voters, 64% of whom would vote for the incumbent, compared to 28% for Ronchetti and 3% for Bedonie. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among white voters with 54% choosing him, compared to 32% for Lujan Grisham and 11% for Bedonie. Among other ethnicities, 45% support Lujan Grisham, 26% support Ronchetti and 16% support Bedonie.

The poll of 642 New Mexico voters was conducted June 13-14. Public Policy Polling called landlines and texted those who didn’t have one. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9% for the main questions, while the sub-populations will have larger margins of error. Not all percentages add up to 100% due to rounding.

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